Anenberg et al. (2010) estimated the global burden of human mortality due to the increase in annual average PM2.5 concentrations from their preindustrial level on a grid of 2.8° × 2.8° resolution. Concentrations of SO4, NO3, NH4, black carbon BC and anthropogenic organic carbon particles OC were included, but dust, sea salt particles and secondary organic aerosols were excluded. The contribution of SO4 to the global average PM2.5 concentration Bleomycin chemical structure was

28.3% (the proportion of (NH4)2SO4, of which the SO4 mass makes up 70%, was 40.4%) in Europe in 2000. Those researchers estimated that if there is no low-concentration threshold below which mortality does not increase, then in the year 2000 PM2.5 exposure caused 3.7 ± 1 million extra mortalities globally,

633 000 of which were in Europe. From an average of six PM models Silva et al. (2013) estimated that 2.1 million (1.3 to 3 M) PM2.5-related extra deaths occurred globally, 154 000 (105–193 000) of which were in Europe. A first estimate of the effect of global shipping-related PM emissions on mortality was 60 000 annual deaths in 2002. It was expected to grow by 40% by 2012 (Corbett et al. 2007). Winebrake et al. (2009) compared the effect of different sulphur control strategies of global ship fuel S content on global mortality rates, and concluded that the 2012 global premature ZD1839 death rate due to ships’ emissions, i.e. 87 000, could be reduced by 33 500 persons with a 0.5% sulphur limit and by 43 500 deaths with a 0.1% S limit. Brandt et al. (2011) developed

an integrated model system EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution) for assessing the health-related impact of air pollution (O3, CO, SO2, SO4, NO3 and primary emitted PM2.5) from specific emission sources. Their estimate of the total number of premature deaths in Europe due to air pollution, was 680 000 in 2000 and 450 000 in 2020. Of these numbers, 49 500 (2010) and 53 200 (2020) were estimated to be caused by international shipping in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Brandt et al. estimated that the health effect of all air pollutants from international ship traffic through the North Sea and the Baltic Sea was 20 377 extra annual deaths in Europe. This is a rather high number, 41% of all deaths caused by NH ship traffic. The report by Brandt et al. (2011) has been cited from by politicians to justify further reductions in the sulphur content of marine fuels (a maximum S content of 0.1% from 1 January 2015). When the sulphur content of the fuel is reduced, PM emissions will also be affected; however, most of the effects can be found in the reduction of secondary sulphate particles, whose ship-originated concentrations calculated in this study were low except close to shipping lanes. In order to estimate the effect of reduced sulphur emissions from ships on European mortality, the effect of O3, NO2 and direct PM emissions should be separated from the overall figure.